IIIT Hyderabad Publications |
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Very Short-Term HVAC Cooling Energy Forecasting for an Educational Building in Real-TimeAuthors: Manasalingamallu,Vishal Garg Conference: Asia Conference of International Building Performance Simulation (ASIM 2018 2018) Date: 2018-12-03 Report no: IIIT/TR/2018/154 AbstractForecasting energy consumption enables users to plan their resource utilization optimally. For this, it is essential to make reliable forecasting of consumption profile in real-time which is very challenging and still emerging. In this study, we focus on forecasting HVAC cooling energy consumption at sub-hourly forecasting horizon which enables us to analyze and control the demand in real-time. With the aid of energy meters and adaptation of BACnet technology in the target building, we collected real building cooling energy consumption data and HVAC systems usage at a higher resolution. In this methodology, weather data from Weather Underground of Gachibowli, Hyderabad location has been used. These recorded weather parameters are being used as explanatory variables. Along with the weather parameters, many other feature-engineered explanatory variables which are discussed in the paper has been used to capture the trend and variation of energy consumption. Required pre-processing and data analysis is performed on the raw data to obtain meaningful information for modeling. We have implemented one-step ahead static forecasting using Gradient Boosting Regression Trees (GBRT), where we forecast for single-time-step ahead in each iteration then update the training data at the end of each iteration with actual data available next time-step in order to assess how well the model forecasts one-step-ahead. Our results show that we could improve forecast accuracy by almost 45% by including feature engineered variables. We achieved a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 14.7% with GBRT. Full paper: pdf Centre for IT in Building Science |
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